Bitcoin autoregresyvaus modelio api
Predictions of bitcoin prices through machine learning based frameworks
The following information was supplied regarding data availability: Data files are available in the Supplemental Files. Abstract The high volatility of an asset in financial markets is commonly seen as a negative factor.
However short-term trades may entail high profits if traders open and close the correct positions. The high volatility of cryptocurrencies, and in particular of Bitcoin, is what made cryptocurrency trading so profitable in these last years. The main goal of this work is to compare several frameworks each other to predict the daily closing Bitcoin price, investigating those that provide the best performance, after a rigorous model selection by the so-called k-fold cross validation method.
We evaluated the performance of one stage bitkoino kursas usd, based only on one machine learning technique, such as the Bayesian Neural Network, the Feed Forward and the Long Short Term Memory Neural Networks, and that of two stages frameworks formed by the neural networks just mentioned in cascade to Support Vector Regression.
Results highlight higher performance of the two stages frameworks with respect to the correspondent one stage frameworks, but for the Bitcoin autoregresyvaus modelio api Neural Network. The one stage framework based on Bayesian Neural Network bitcoin autoregresyvaus modelio api the highest performance and the order of magnitude of the mean absolute percentage error computed on the predicted price by this framework is in agreement with those reported in recent literature works.
Keywords: Machine learning, Cryptocurrencies, Technical indicators, Bayesian neural network Introduction Unlike the volatility of traditional market assets, the volatility of cryptocurrency markets is very high, and albeit they share the characteristics of traditional stock markets, they are highly unstable.
Indeed these markets are decentralized and unregulated, and also subject to manipulation.
Nowadays many are the entrepreneurs who invest in block-chain, the well known technology underlying the most popular cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, and we can expect that this number will grow as the Bitcoin utility increases; and many are the people who speculate on the bitcoin price. Speculating on the Bitcoin market may offer the opportunity to obtain substantial returns, but it may also entail a very high risk.
So to judge the best time to enter the market is extremely important in order to get profits and not to lose too much money. The price of Bitcoin changes every day, just like the price of fiat currencies. However the Bitcoin price changes are on a greater scale than that of the fiat currency changes.
As a result to get an idea of the future price trend can be extremely important. To date, several on-line platforms make available several technical analysis tools that allow the bitcoin speculators to identify trends and market sentiment; the number of the research papers that investigate the future bitcoin price trend is increasing.
As a measure of volatility we used the moving standard deviation calculated applying the Pandas rolling standard deviation to the logarithmic returns of each just quoted currency pair using a window of 6 days.
It is equal to 0.